Money Buys Championships

The underlying premise of one of the previous post seems to be that a higher payroll will result in more championships or playoff appearances. I tend to think the same way. But, I wondered just how much you needed to spend so I took a look at the wildcard era and compared the teams that made the playoffs against their payroll rank, which are based on opening day rosters. So, for instance, a midseason trade for C.C. Sabathia would skew the numbers a bit and I didn’t take that into account.

In the wildcard era, the average payroll rank for World Series winners was 7.36. For League Championship winners, it was 8.44, and for Division Series winners, it was 9.02. Playoff teams had an average rank of 9.95. During the timeframe I looked at, only 13 teams ranked 20 or lower made the playoffs. But in recent years, it seems that more teams from the bottom half of the payroll rankings are making the playoffs.

So, to win a World Series, it looks like you’ll have to sit somewhere in the top 10 in payroll. The outliers are Philadelphia (12th), St. Louis (11th), the White Sox (13th), Florida (25th), and the Angels (15th). Yet, even 4 of those 5 are in the top 15. Looking at the numbers, it seems you’ll have better luck with a small payroll in the NL. But on average, NL teams don’t spend as much anyways. It also helps that some of the big spenders are concentrated in divisions like the AL and NL East. Thus, ISBJ’s beloved Royals might get lucky one year in the AL Central sitting somewhere towards the bottom in payroll.

For some reason all these years, I have been under the impression that the Braves and Angels won by spending less and getting the most out of the talent they found. In the 11 years the Braves went to the playoffs, their average payroll rank was 5 (Boston’s was 6). In the 5 appearances the Angels made, their average payroll rank was 6.4. The Athletics (5 playoff appearances, average rank of 25.20) and the Twins (4 playoff appearances, average rank of 20.75) get the most for the least.

Getting back to ISBJ’s post, the teams he listed probably will not win a World Series in the next century. But contrary to his assertions, the Royals did not make any deadline moves because they are pretty much talentless, their farm system is in disarray, and management continues to make terrible personnel moves. They stink, not because of their payroll, but because they stink. If they’re lucky, they’ll find their way to 100 losses.